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2025-11-01 15:10:32 -07:00
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out_tables/table1_data_overview.csv Normal file
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Component,Details
Primary data source,"COGCC Spill/Release Reports (Form 19), statewide Colorado"
Units and variables,"Dates, volumes, locations, facility, county; outcome = report delay (days)"
Temporal coverage,2015–2022 (pre-policy and post-2020 policy)
Geographic coverage,"Statewide; top counties: Weld, Garfield, Las Animas"
Initial sample size,"N = 35,640 spill reports"
Analytical sample size,"N = 33,202 after IQR trimming"
Exclusions,"2,438 observations removed by IQR/outlier rules"
Demographics join,"Census tract RUCA and demographics (ACS), spatial join to spill locations"
1 Component Details
2 Primary data source COGCC Spill/Release Reports (Form 19), statewide Colorado
3 Units and variables Dates, volumes, locations, facility, county; outcome = report delay (days)
4 Temporal coverage 2015–2022 (pre-policy and post-2020 policy)
5 Geographic coverage Statewide; top counties: Weld, Garfield, Las Animas
6 Initial sample size N = 35,640 spill reports
7 Analytical sample size N = 33,202 after IQR trimming
8 Exclusions 2,438 observations removed by IQR/outlier rules
9 Demographics join Census tract RUCA and demographics (ACS), spatial join to spill locations

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Variable,Definition,Type,N,Mean (SD),Median [IQR]
Report Delay (days),Days between discovery and initial report; outcome variable,Continuous,33202.0,0.99 (1.09),"1.00 [0.00, 1.00]"
Spill Type,Historical vs Recent spill classification,Categorical,,,
Policy Period,Before 2020 vs 2020 and After (SB 19-181 implementation),Categorical,,,
Rurality,"Rural, Suburban, Urban (RUCA-based)",Categorical,,,
Median Household Income,Census tract ACS median income (USD),Continuous (optional),33202.0,-5904822.76 (62883297.78),"72717.00 [64573.00, 85561.00]"
Percent Poverty,Census tract percent below poverty line,Continuous (optional),33200.0,10.28 (6.37),"9.57 [5.83, 13.51]"
1 Variable Definition Type N Mean (SD) Median [IQR]
2 Report Delay (days) Days between discovery and initial report; outcome variable Continuous 33202.0 0.99 (1.09) 1.00 [0.00, 1.00]
3 Spill Type Historical vs Recent spill classification Categorical
4 Policy Period Before 2020 vs 2020 and After (SB 19-181 implementation) Categorical
5 Rurality Rural, Suburban, Urban (RUCA-based) Categorical
6 Median Household Income Census tract ACS median income (USD) Continuous (optional) 33202.0 -5904822.76 (62883297.78) 72717.00 [64573.00, 85561.00]
7 Percent Poverty Census tract percent below poverty line Continuous (optional) 33200.0 10.28 (6.37) 9.57 [5.83, 13.51]

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Variable,N,Mean (SD),Median [IQR],Percent
Report Delay (days),33202,0.99 (1.09),"1.00 [0.00, 1.00]",
Spill Type: Recent,20702,,,62.35%
Spill Type: Historical,12500,,,37.65%
Period: 2020 and After,19546,,,58.87%
Period: Before 2020,13656,,,41.13%
Rurality: Urban,15732,,,47.38%
Rurality: Rural,14826,,,44.65%
Rurality: Suburban,2644,,,7.96%
Median Household Income,33202,-5904822.76 (62883297.78),"72717.00 [64573.00, 85561.00]",
Percent Poverty,33200,10.28 (6.37),"9.57 [5.83, 13.51]",
Percent White,33200,83.51 (8.48),"85.92 [78.83, 87.85]",
Percent Hispanic,33200,22.82 (13.06),"18.38 [13.92, 35.42]",
Unemployment Rate,33200,2.66 (1.37),"2.41 [1.54, 3.97]",
1 Variable N Mean (SD) Median [IQR] Percent
2 Report Delay (days) 33202 0.99 (1.09) 1.00 [0.00, 1.00]
3 Spill Type: Recent 20702 62.35%
4 Spill Type: Historical 12500 37.65%
5 Period: 2020 and After 19546 58.87%
6 Period: Before 2020 13656 41.13%
7 Rurality: Urban 15732 47.38%
8 Rurality: Rural 14826 44.65%
9 Rurality: Suburban 2644 7.96%
10 Median Household Income 33202 -5904822.76 (62883297.78) 72717.00 [64573.00, 85561.00]
11 Percent Poverty 33200 10.28 (6.37) 9.57 [5.83, 13.51]
12 Percent White 33200 83.51 (8.48) 85.92 [78.83, 87.85]
13 Percent Hispanic 33200 22.82 (13.06) 18.38 [13.92, 35.42]
14 Unemployment Rate 33200 2.66 (1.37) 2.41 [1.54, 3.97]

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Variable,Definition,Type
Report Delay (days),Days between discovery and initial report; outcome variable,Continuous
Spill Type,Historical vs Recent spill classification,Categorical
Policy Period,Before 2020 vs 2020 and After (SB 19-181 implementation),Categorical
Rurality,"Rural, Suburban, Urban (RUCA-based)",Categorical
Median Household Income,Census tract ACS median income (USD),Continuous (optional)
Percent Poverty,Census tract percent below poverty line,Continuous (optional)
1 Variable Definition Type
2 Report Delay (days) Days between discovery and initial report; outcome variable Continuous
3 Spill Type Historical vs Recent spill classification Categorical
4 Policy Period Before 2020 vs 2020 and After (SB 19-181 implementation) Categorical
5 Rurality Rural, Suburban, Urban (RUCA-based) Categorical
6 Median Household Income Census tract ACS median income (USD) Continuous (optional)
7 Percent Poverty Census tract percent below poverty line Continuous (optional)

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out_tables/table3_core_glm_contrasts.csv Normal file
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Period,rurality,Delta (days),95% CI,p,Delta (hours),Hours 95% CI
Before 2020,Rural,0.0125075677145938,"(-0.10, 0.12)",0.828,0.3001816251502512,"(-2.42, 2.98)"
Before 2020,Suburban,0.0192862765678301,"(-0.21, 0.25)",0.862,0.4628706376279224,"(-4.97, 5.94)"
Before 2020,Urban,0.1305571823770012,"(0.05, 0.21)",<0.001,3.133372377048029,"(1.27, 5.00)"
2020 and After,Rural,0.0727709345083023,"(0.00, 0.14)",0.049,1.7465024281992552,"(0.01, 3.46)"
2020 and After,Suburban,0.1438421422124148,"(0.02, 0.26)",0.022,3.452211413097955,"(0.46, 6.34)"
2020 and After,Urban,0.2921678186765097,"(0.24, 0.34)",<0.001,7.0120276482362325,"(5.86, 8.22)"
1 Period rurality Delta (days) 95% CI p Delta (hours) Hours 95% CI
2 Before 2020 Rural 0.0125075677145938 (-0.10, 0.12) 0.828 0.3001816251502512 (-2.42, 2.98)
3 Before 2020 Suburban 0.0192862765678301 (-0.21, 0.25) 0.862 0.4628706376279224 (-4.97, 5.94)
4 Before 2020 Urban 0.1305571823770012 (0.05, 0.21) <0.001 3.133372377048029 (1.27, 5.00)
5 2020 and After Rural 0.0727709345083023 (0.00, 0.14) 0.049 1.7465024281992552 (0.01, 3.46)
6 2020 and After Suburban 0.1438421422124148 (0.02, 0.26) 0.022 3.452211413097955 (0.46, 6.34)
7 2020 and After Urban 0.2921678186765097 (0.24, 0.34) <0.001 7.0120276482362325 (5.86, 8.22)

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Spill Type,Period,Rurality,Predicted (days),95% CI
Historical,Before 2020,Rural,0.8881118881118854,"(0.81, 0.97)"
Historical,Before 2020,Suburban,0.7837837837837821,"(0.65, 0.93)"
Historical,Before 2020,Urban,0.8045417680454152,"(0.77, 0.84)"
Historical,2020 and After,Rural,0.6093189964157685,"(0.56, 0.66)"
Historical,2020 and After,Suburban,0.4201183431952656,"(0.36, 0.49)"
Historical,2020 and After,Urban,0.3444994290064702,"(0.33, 0.36)"
Recent,Before 2020,Rural,0.9033877038895848,"(0.87, 0.94)"
Recent,Before 2020,Suburban,0.8009708737864075,"(0.72, 0.89)"
Recent,Before 2020,Urban,0.93542074363992,"(0.89, 0.98)"
Recent,2020 and After,Rural,0.6839481555333978,"(0.66, 0.71)"
Recent,2020 and After,Suburban,0.5621468926553672,"(0.51, 0.62)"
Recent,2020 and After,Urban,0.6367281475541288,"(0.61, 0.67)"
1 Spill Type Period Rurality Predicted (days) 95% CI
2 Historical Before 2020 Rural 0.8881118881118854 (0.81, 0.97)
3 Historical Before 2020 Suburban 0.7837837837837821 (0.65, 0.93)
4 Historical Before 2020 Urban 0.8045417680454152 (0.77, 0.84)
5 Historical 2020 and After Rural 0.6093189964157685 (0.56, 0.66)
6 Historical 2020 and After Suburban 0.4201183431952656 (0.36, 0.49)
7 Historical 2020 and After Urban 0.3444994290064702 (0.33, 0.36)
8 Recent Before 2020 Rural 0.9033877038895848 (0.87, 0.94)
9 Recent Before 2020 Suburban 0.8009708737864075 (0.72, 0.89)
10 Recent Before 2020 Urban 0.93542074363992 (0.89, 0.98)
11 Recent 2020 and After Rural 0.6839481555333978 (0.66, 0.71)
12 Recent 2020 and After Suburban 0.5621468926553672 (0.51, 0.62)
13 Recent 2020 and After Urban 0.6367281475541288 (0.61, 0.67)

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Section,Details
Model Robustness,Saved table5_robustness_poisson_vs_nb.csv comparing Poisson vs NB
1 Section Details
2 Model Robustness Saved table5_robustness_poisson_vs_nb.csv comparing Poisson vs NB

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Period,Rurality,Poisson Δ (days),NB Δ (days),Difference (NB - Poisson),Poisson p,NB p
Before 2020,Rural,0.0125075677145938,-9.826219107892053,-9.838726675606646,0.828,0.0004
Before 2020,Suburban,0.0192862765678301,-7.100280417538358,-7.119566694106188,0.862,0.1072
Before 2020,Urban,0.1305571823770012,-1.6388416472647436,-1.7693988296417449,0.0,0.008
2020 and After,Rural,0.0727709345083023,-13.917287633807826,-13.990058568316128,0.049,0.0
2020 and After,Suburban,0.1438421422124148,-7.230488621220758,-7.374330763433172,0.022,0.0368
2020 and After,Urban,0.2921678186765097,-2.869383763253332,-3.161551581929842,0.0,0.0
1 Period Rurality Poisson Δ (days) NB Δ (days) Difference (NB - Poisson) Poisson p NB p
2 Before 2020 Rural 0.0125075677145938 -9.826219107892053 -9.838726675606646 0.828 0.0004
3 Before 2020 Suburban 0.0192862765678301 -7.100280417538358 -7.119566694106188 0.862 0.1072
4 Before 2020 Urban 0.1305571823770012 -1.6388416472647436 -1.7693988296417449 0.0 0.008
5 2020 and After Rural 0.0727709345083023 -13.917287633807826 -13.990058568316128 0.049 0.0
6 2020 and After Suburban 0.1438421422124148 -7.230488621220758 -7.374330763433172 0.022 0.0368
7 2020 and After Urban 0.2921678186765097 -2.869383763253332 -3.161551581929842 0.0 0.0