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methods, results, appendix details

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David Adams
2025-08-14 21:42:49 -07:00
parent 6937cecbaf
commit ba27a41ecd
9 changed files with 1044 additions and 5 deletions
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1021
analysis/new analysis Aug 2025/analayis11_2020_nooutliers.ipynb
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analysis/new analysis Aug 2025/contrast_comparison_period_enhanced_nb.csv Normal file
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spill_type,rurality,nb_median,nb_ci_lower,nb_ci_upper,nb_p,poisson_median,poisson_ci_lower,poisson_ci_upper,poisson_p,nb_median_hours,nb_ci_lower_hours,nb_ci_upper_hours,poisson_median_hours,poisson_ci_lower_hours,poisson_ci_upper_hours,nb_median_pct,poisson_median_pct
Historical,Rural,-4.199889746705184,-10.971624837175552,2.5549943569672315,0.2228,0.2808043211269003,0.1565863348121387,0.4013503521568019,0.0,-100.79735392092441,-263.31899609221324,61.31986456721356,6.739303707045607,3.7580720354913293,9.632408451763247,-25.479021997560665,46.08494446729717
Historical,Suburban,-0.7410415074487329,-11.365626134011068,9.922773219178197,0.88,0.3627858627858625,0.1431912681912688,0.5833399968015346,0.002,-17.78499617876959,-272.77502721626564,238.14655726027672,8.7068607068607,3.4365904365904507,14.00015992323683,-6.815870524413987,86.35325466311389
Historical,Urban,-0.4941652970778789,-1.744335703396904,0.7105244461669884,0.42,0.4597938125233273,0.4052792125939049,0.5130907097083722,0.0,-11.859967129869093,-41.8640568815257,17.052586708007723,11.035051500559856,9.726701102253719,12.314177033000934,-9.897765581909265,133.61486122774116
Recent,Rural,-0.1081360437811551,-0.6575408451267764,0.4475731706516733,0.7072,0.2203805772144051,0.1639760611515491,0.2785119703624395,0.0,-2.5952650507477224,-15.780980283042632,10.74175609564016,5.289133853145723,3.9354254676371787,6.684287288698549,-4.18109152886855,32.24532734442724
Recent,Suburban,-0.7307301673953537,-2.564918909763592,1.042203127427388,0.4028,0.2382069003345967,0.0871756897592011,0.3806792002632888,0.0,-17.537524017488487,-61.55805383432621,25.01287505825731,5.716965608030321,2.0922165542208266,9.13630080631893,-19.625238098058546,42.374493828365424
Recent,Urban,0.7302741624390223,-0.079768947658588,1.5659840745987412,0.0784,0.2965367370926982,0.2244407321210834,0.3694847085058905,0.0,17.526579898536536,-1.914454743806112,37.583617790369786,7.116881690224757,5.3865775709060015,8.867633004141371,34.37846057089439,46.60129945237497
1 spill_type rurality nb_median nb_ci_lower nb_ci_upper nb_p poisson_median poisson_ci_lower poisson_ci_upper poisson_p nb_median_hours nb_ci_lower_hours nb_ci_upper_hours poisson_median_hours poisson_ci_lower_hours poisson_ci_upper_hours nb_median_pct poisson_median_pct
2 Historical Rural -4.199889746705184 -10.971624837175552 2.5549943569672315 0.2228 0.2808043211269003 0.1565863348121387 0.4013503521568019 0.0 -100.79735392092441 -263.31899609221324 61.31986456721356 6.739303707045607 3.7580720354913293 9.632408451763247 -25.479021997560665 46.08494446729717
3 Historical Suburban -0.7410415074487329 -11.365626134011068 9.922773219178197 0.88 0.3627858627858625 0.1431912681912688 0.5833399968015346 0.002 -17.78499617876959 -272.77502721626564 238.14655726027672 8.7068607068607 3.4365904365904507 14.00015992323683 -6.815870524413987 86.35325466311389
4 Historical Urban -0.4941652970778789 -1.744335703396904 0.7105244461669884 0.42 0.4597938125233273 0.4052792125939049 0.5130907097083722 0.0 -11.859967129869093 -41.8640568815257 17.052586708007723 11.035051500559856 9.726701102253719 12.314177033000934 -9.897765581909265 133.61486122774116
5 Recent Rural -0.1081360437811551 -0.6575408451267764 0.4475731706516733 0.7072 0.2203805772144051 0.1639760611515491 0.2785119703624395 0.0 -2.5952650507477224 -15.780980283042632 10.74175609564016 5.289133853145723 3.9354254676371787 6.684287288698549 -4.18109152886855 32.24532734442724
6 Recent Suburban -0.7307301673953537 -2.564918909763592 1.042203127427388 0.4028 0.2382069003345967 0.0871756897592011 0.3806792002632888 0.0 -17.537524017488487 -61.55805383432621 25.01287505825731 5.716965608030321 2.0922165542208266 9.13630080631893 -19.625238098058546 42.374493828365424
7 Recent Urban 0.7302741624390223 -0.079768947658588 1.5659840745987412 0.0784 0.2965367370926982 0.2244407321210834 0.3694847085058905 0.0 17.526579898536536 -1.914454743806112 37.583617790369786 7.116881690224757 5.3865775709060015 8.867633004141371 34.37846057089439 46.60129945237497

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analysis/new analysis Aug 2025/contrast_comparison_spilltype_enhanced_nb.csv Normal file
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Period,rurality,nb_median,nb_ci_lower,nb_ci_upper,nb_p,poisson_median,poisson_ci_lower,poisson_ci_upper,poisson_p,nb_median_hours,nb_ci_lower_hours,nb_ci_upper_hours,poisson_median_hours,poisson_ci_lower_hours,poisson_ci_upper_hours,nb_median_pct,poisson_median_pct
Before 2020,Rural,-9.826219107892053,-14.869599396708646,-4.507633417615492,0.0004,0.0125075677145938,-0.1007299005887473,0.1242653832992618,0.828,-235.82925858940928,-356.8703855210075,-108.18320202277181,0.3001816251502512,-2.417517614129935,2.9823691991822834,-79.90045248012314,1.4028095554407178
Before 2020,Suburban,-7.100280417538358,-15.484324609933072,1.4802600357437907,0.1072,0.0192862765678301,-0.2070683547625284,0.2474055366045697,0.862,-170.4067300209206,-371.62379063839376,35.52624085785098,0.4628706376279224,-4.969640514300682,5.937732878509673,-71.03569106939709,2.4606628724473
Before 2020,Urban,-1.6388416472647436,-2.8560915098428508,-0.4644060319162429,0.008,0.1305571823770012,0.0529612911724684,0.2084385013879577,0.0,-39.33219953435385,-68.54619623622841,-11.14574476598983,3.133372377048029,1.2710709881392417,5.002524033310984,-36.40851978334398,16.22752075310919
2020 and After,Rural,-13.917287633807826,-18.48415448898385,-9.260262673475022,0.0,0.0727709345083023,0.0005333461979639,0.144294044390127,0.049,-334.01490321138783,-443.61970773561245,-222.24630416340054,1.7465024281992552,0.0128003087511336,3.463057065363048,-84.43052059791609,11.942994545774322
2020 and After,Suburban,-7.230488621220758,-13.88880956784627,-0.396495094273276,0.0368,0.1438421422124148,0.0193728479256509,0.2640026911376328,0.022,-173.5317269092982,-333.3314296283105,-9.515882262558623,3.452211413097955,0.46494835021562153,6.336064587303188,-66.50379739207625,34.238481737884705
2020 and After,Urban,-2.869383763253332,-3.7289121485454073,-2.005130365939876,0.0,0.2921678186765097,0.2442461679633707,0.3427039893841879,0.0,-68.86521031807997,-89.49389156508977,-48.123128782557025,7.0120276482362325,5.861908031120897,8.22489574522051,-57.471635546156705,84.90319244061843
1 Period rurality nb_median nb_ci_lower nb_ci_upper nb_p poisson_median poisson_ci_lower poisson_ci_upper poisson_p nb_median_hours nb_ci_lower_hours nb_ci_upper_hours poisson_median_hours poisson_ci_lower_hours poisson_ci_upper_hours nb_median_pct poisson_median_pct
2 Before 2020 Rural -9.826219107892053 -14.869599396708646 -4.507633417615492 0.0004 0.0125075677145938 -0.1007299005887473 0.1242653832992618 0.828 -235.82925858940928 -356.8703855210075 -108.18320202277181 0.3001816251502512 -2.417517614129935 2.9823691991822834 -79.90045248012314 1.4028095554407178
3 Before 2020 Suburban -7.100280417538358 -15.484324609933072 1.4802600357437907 0.1072 0.0192862765678301 -0.2070683547625284 0.2474055366045697 0.862 -170.4067300209206 -371.62379063839376 35.52624085785098 0.4628706376279224 -4.969640514300682 5.937732878509673 -71.03569106939709 2.4606628724473
4 Before 2020 Urban -1.6388416472647436 -2.8560915098428508 -0.4644060319162429 0.008 0.1305571823770012 0.0529612911724684 0.2084385013879577 0.0 -39.33219953435385 -68.54619623622841 -11.14574476598983 3.133372377048029 1.2710709881392417 5.002524033310984 -36.40851978334398 16.22752075310919
5 2020 and After Rural -13.917287633807826 -18.48415448898385 -9.260262673475022 0.0 0.0727709345083023 0.0005333461979639 0.144294044390127 0.049 -334.01490321138783 -443.61970773561245 -222.24630416340054 1.7465024281992552 0.0128003087511336 3.463057065363048 -84.43052059791609 11.942994545774322
6 2020 and After Suburban -7.230488621220758 -13.88880956784627 -0.396495094273276 0.0368 0.1438421422124148 0.0193728479256509 0.2640026911376328 0.022 -173.5317269092982 -333.3314296283105 -9.515882262558623 3.452211413097955 0.46494835021562153 6.336064587303188 -66.50379739207625 34.238481737884705
7 2020 and After Urban -2.869383763253332 -3.7289121485454073 -2.005130365939876 0.0 0.2921678186765097 0.2442461679633707 0.3427039893841879 0.0 -68.86521031807997 -89.49389156508977 -48.123128782557025 7.0120276482362325 5.861908031120897 8.22489574522051 -57.471635546156705 84.90319244061843

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analysis/new analysis Aug 2025/final_contrast_comparison_combined.csv Normal file
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Period,rurality,nb_median,nb_ci_lower,nb_ci_upper,nb_p,poisson_median,poisson_ci_lower,poisson_ci_upper,poisson_p,nb_median_hours,nb_ci_lower_hours,nb_ci_upper_hours,poisson_median_hours,poisson_ci_lower_hours,poisson_ci_upper_hours,nb_median_pct,poisson_median_pct,model
Before 2020,Rural,-9.826219107892053,-14.869599396708646,-4.507633417615492,0.0004,0.0125075677145938,-0.1007299005887473,0.1242653832992618,0.828,-235.82925858940928,-356.8703855210075,-108.1832020227718,0.3001816251502512,-2.417517614129935,2.9823691991822834,-79.90045248012314,1.4028095554407178,poisson
Before 2020,Suburban,-7.100280417538358,-15.484324609933072,1.4802600357437907,0.1072,0.0192862765678301,-0.2070683547625284,0.2474055366045697,0.862,-170.4067300209206,-371.62379063839376,35.52624085785098,0.4628706376279224,-4.969640514300682,5.937732878509673,-71.03569106939709,2.4606628724473,poisson
Before 2020,Urban,-1.6388416472647436,-2.8560915098428508,-0.4644060319162429,0.008,0.1305571823770012,0.0529612911724684,0.2084385013879577,0.0,-39.33219953435385,-68.54619623622841,-11.14574476598983,3.133372377048029,1.2710709881392417,5.002524033310984,-36.40851978334398,16.22752075310919,poisson
2020 and After,Rural,-13.917287633807826,-18.48415448898385,-9.260262673475022,0.0,0.0727709345083023,0.0005333461979639,0.144294044390127,0.049,-334.01490321138783,-443.6197077356125,-222.2463041634005,1.7465024281992552,0.0128003087511336,3.463057065363048,-84.43052059791609,11.942994545774322,poisson
2020 and After,Suburban,-7.230488621220758,-13.88880956784627,-0.396495094273276,0.0368,0.1438421422124148,0.0193728479256509,0.2640026911376328,0.022,-173.5317269092982,-333.3314296283105,-9.515882262558623,3.452211413097955,0.4649483502156215,6.336064587303188,-66.50379739207625,34.238481737884705,poisson
2020 and After,Urban,-2.869383763253332,-3.7289121485454073,-2.005130365939876,0.0,0.2921678186765097,0.2442461679633707,0.3427039893841879,0.0,-68.86521031807997,-89.49389156508977,-48.12312878255703,7.0120276482362325,5.861908031120897,8.22489574522051,-57.47163554615671,84.90319244061843,poisson
Before 2020,Rural,-9.826219107892053,-14.869599396708646,-4.507633417615492,0.0004,0.0125075677145938,-0.1007299005887473,0.1242653832992618,0.828,-235.82925858940928,-356.8703855210075,-108.1832020227718,0.3001816251502512,-2.417517614129935,2.9823691991822834,-79.90045248012314,1.4028095554407178,neg_binom
Before 2020,Suburban,-7.100280417538358,-15.484324609933072,1.4802600357437907,0.1072,0.0192862765678301,-0.2070683547625284,0.2474055366045697,0.862,-170.4067300209206,-371.62379063839376,35.52624085785098,0.4628706376279224,-4.969640514300682,5.937732878509673,-71.03569106939709,2.4606628724473,neg_binom
Before 2020,Urban,-1.6388416472647436,-2.8560915098428508,-0.4644060319162429,0.008,0.1305571823770012,0.0529612911724684,0.2084385013879577,0.0,-39.33219953435385,-68.54619623622841,-11.14574476598983,3.133372377048029,1.2710709881392417,5.002524033310984,-36.40851978334398,16.22752075310919,neg_binom
2020 and After,Rural,-13.917287633807826,-18.48415448898385,-9.260262673475022,0.0,0.0727709345083023,0.0005333461979639,0.144294044390127,0.049,-334.01490321138783,-443.6197077356125,-222.2463041634005,1.7465024281992552,0.0128003087511336,3.463057065363048,-84.43052059791609,11.942994545774322,neg_binom
2020 and After,Suburban,-7.230488621220758,-13.88880956784627,-0.396495094273276,0.0368,0.1438421422124148,0.0193728479256509,0.2640026911376328,0.022,-173.5317269092982,-333.3314296283105,-9.515882262558623,3.452211413097955,0.4649483502156215,6.336064587303188,-66.50379739207625,34.238481737884705,neg_binom
2020 and After,Urban,-2.869383763253332,-3.7289121485454073,-2.005130365939876,0.0,0.2921678186765097,0.2442461679633707,0.3427039893841879,0.0,-68.86521031807997,-89.49389156508977,-48.12312878255703,7.0120276482362325,5.861908031120897,8.22489574522051,-57.47163554615671,84.90319244061843,neg_binom
1 Period rurality nb_median nb_ci_lower nb_ci_upper nb_p poisson_median poisson_ci_lower poisson_ci_upper poisson_p nb_median_hours nb_ci_lower_hours nb_ci_upper_hours poisson_median_hours poisson_ci_lower_hours poisson_ci_upper_hours nb_median_pct poisson_median_pct model
2 Before 2020 Rural -9.826219107892053 -14.869599396708646 -4.507633417615492 0.0004 0.0125075677145938 -0.1007299005887473 0.1242653832992618 0.828 -235.82925858940928 -356.8703855210075 -108.1832020227718 0.3001816251502512 -2.417517614129935 2.9823691991822834 -79.90045248012314 1.4028095554407178 poisson
3 Before 2020 Suburban -7.100280417538358 -15.484324609933072 1.4802600357437907 0.1072 0.0192862765678301 -0.2070683547625284 0.2474055366045697 0.862 -170.4067300209206 -371.62379063839376 35.52624085785098 0.4628706376279224 -4.969640514300682 5.937732878509673 -71.03569106939709 2.4606628724473 poisson
4 Before 2020 Urban -1.6388416472647436 -2.8560915098428508 -0.4644060319162429 0.008 0.1305571823770012 0.0529612911724684 0.2084385013879577 0.0 -39.33219953435385 -68.54619623622841 -11.14574476598983 3.133372377048029 1.2710709881392417 5.002524033310984 -36.40851978334398 16.22752075310919 poisson
5 2020 and After Rural -13.917287633807826 -18.48415448898385 -9.260262673475022 0.0 0.0727709345083023 0.0005333461979639 0.144294044390127 0.049 -334.01490321138783 -443.6197077356125 -222.2463041634005 1.7465024281992552 0.0128003087511336 3.463057065363048 -84.43052059791609 11.942994545774322 poisson
6 2020 and After Suburban -7.230488621220758 -13.88880956784627 -0.396495094273276 0.0368 0.1438421422124148 0.0193728479256509 0.2640026911376328 0.022 -173.5317269092982 -333.3314296283105 -9.515882262558623 3.452211413097955 0.4649483502156215 6.336064587303188 -66.50379739207625 34.238481737884705 poisson
7 2020 and After Urban -2.869383763253332 -3.7289121485454073 -2.005130365939876 0.0 0.2921678186765097 0.2442461679633707 0.3427039893841879 0.0 -68.86521031807997 -89.49389156508977 -48.12312878255703 7.0120276482362325 5.861908031120897 8.22489574522051 -57.47163554615671 84.90319244061843 poisson
8 Before 2020 Rural -9.826219107892053 -14.869599396708646 -4.507633417615492 0.0004 0.0125075677145938 -0.1007299005887473 0.1242653832992618 0.828 -235.82925858940928 -356.8703855210075 -108.1832020227718 0.3001816251502512 -2.417517614129935 2.9823691991822834 -79.90045248012314 1.4028095554407178 neg_binom
9 Before 2020 Suburban -7.100280417538358 -15.484324609933072 1.4802600357437907 0.1072 0.0192862765678301 -0.2070683547625284 0.2474055366045697 0.862 -170.4067300209206 -371.62379063839376 35.52624085785098 0.4628706376279224 -4.969640514300682 5.937732878509673 -71.03569106939709 2.4606628724473 neg_binom
10 Before 2020 Urban -1.6388416472647436 -2.8560915098428508 -0.4644060319162429 0.008 0.1305571823770012 0.0529612911724684 0.2084385013879577 0.0 -39.33219953435385 -68.54619623622841 -11.14574476598983 3.133372377048029 1.2710709881392417 5.002524033310984 -36.40851978334398 16.22752075310919 neg_binom
11 2020 and After Rural -13.917287633807826 -18.48415448898385 -9.260262673475022 0.0 0.0727709345083023 0.0005333461979639 0.144294044390127 0.049 -334.01490321138783 -443.6197077356125 -222.2463041634005 1.7465024281992552 0.0128003087511336 3.463057065363048 -84.43052059791609 11.942994545774322 neg_binom
12 2020 and After Suburban -7.230488621220758 -13.88880956784627 -0.396495094273276 0.0368 0.1438421422124148 0.0193728479256509 0.2640026911376328 0.022 -173.5317269092982 -333.3314296283105 -9.515882262558623 3.452211413097955 0.4649483502156215 6.336064587303188 -66.50379739207625 34.238481737884705 neg_binom
13 2020 and After Urban -2.869383763253332 -3.7289121485454073 -2.005130365939876 0.0 0.2921678186765097 0.2442461679633707 0.3427039893841879 0.0 -68.86521031807997 -89.49389156508977 -48.12312878255703 7.0120276482362325 5.861908031120897 8.22489574522051 -57.47163554615671 84.90319244061843 neg_binom

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